Problem 1142

Is the following an example of empirical probability?

A weather forecast that predicts a 20% change of a tornado tomorrow.




Probabilities are empirical when it is not possible to establish  exact probabilities for the event in question. Instead, useful approximation are often found by drawing on post experience.

Let E represent the event of having a tornado tomorrow. There are many factors that affect this event, some of which are not known. It is not possible to establish an exact probability for the event.

Therefore, the given probability is an example of an empirical probability.



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